Flooding Increase for Scotland

An increase in the frequency and severity of flooding in Scotland caused by climate change could cost the country an annual £43 million by the year 2080, according to research carried out at the University of Dundee.

A study by researchers from the Department of Geography, working with the environmental firm Entec UK, predicts a 10% to 20% increase in flood magnitudes in inland areas over the next 80 years, while the chances of flooding occurring in especially sensitive river basin areas, such as the Clyde, will more than double.

Geography lecturers Dr Andrew Black, Dr Rob Duck and Professor Alan Werritty carried out the Scottish Executive-commissioned report which warns that the threat of flooding both inland and around the coast of Scotland will increase substantially over the coming century, damaging Scotland's economy and society as a result.

"Climate Change: Flooding Occurrences Review" examines the recent history of flooding in Scotland and predicts likely changes in flooding given what is presently known about climate change. It identifies those areas of Scotland most vulnerable to flooding and estimates current and future financial damage in these areas.

The study also reviews public awareness about flooding and makes recommendations for improving flood hazard management and public awareness of this problem.

The main findings of the report are:

• By the 2080s, inlands floods are predicted to have increased by up to 10% in Low and Medium-Low emissions scenarios or by up to 20% in Medium-High and High scenarios. The four scenarios come from a key report of the Hadley Centre - the UK Met Office's climate change research centre - which describes a range of future scenarios corresponding to different future levels of greenhouse gas emissions and associated climate warming
• In especially sensitive river basins what is now a one in 50-year flood could become a one in 20-year flood.
• By 2050 sea levels are predicted to rise by an additional 80-300mm which, when combined with future storm surges, could make most of Scotland's coasts below 5m above sea level vulnerable to low risk floods.
• At present 93,000 properties are at risk from coastal flooding and 77,000 from inland flooding. Current estimates of annual average damage from inland floods are around £20 million. This could rise by 27% by 2020, 86% by 2050 and 115% by 2080 due to climate change.
• The public has a role to play in raising flood awareness via Flood Appraisal groups, new Community Flood Groups and flood warden schemes. The Scottish Environment Protection Agency should have strengthened powers in issuing flood warnings and advising on planning applications.

Dr Andrew Black said, "Current predictions of climate change suggest that over the present century Scotland will become warmer and wetter, sea level will rise and the number of storms around the coast will increase. As a result, the threat of flooding both inland and around the coast will increase, damaging Scotland's economy and society.

"Transport links, housing, the public water supply and commercial owners are especially vulnerable to such an increase in flooding. Although land owners are primarily responsible for flood protection, local and central government also have a role in reducing the adverse impact of floods."

Dr Black can be contacted at the University of Dundee on 01382 344433