15 February 2001
What cancer doctors and weather forcasts have in common
Embargoed until:
00:01 Thursday 15 February 2001
CANCER doctors could one day use a similar technique to weather forecasting to help predict the best way of treating their patients, says a speaker at The Cancer Research Campaign's National Cancer Symposium.
Prof Mark Chaplain from Dundee University will today (Wed) tell an audience of 500 cancer experts how mathematical models could be used to calculate the likely spread of a cancer and how best it may respond to treatment.
This cutting edge technique, which is so new it is still being developed, works on a similar principle to weather forecasting.
Prof Chaplain, speaking at the symposium in Manchester says: "A useful analogy of this technique is with weather forecasting which uses a mathematical model to predict future weather patterns based on the current information. The information includes various atmospheric data and measurements eg pressure, water content, wind speed etc.
"In the same way, I believe, doctors could use mathematical models to predict where cancer cells are likely to move to in the body, how fast they will do so and how well they could respond to treatment.
"We aren't claiming that a computer model would cure anybody - that's down to doctors. But we could provide doctors with extra information to help them make decisions about treatment."
The system would work by inputting existing data about an individual patient, details of their blood supply and the biological characteristics of their tumour, into a mathematical programme which would be processed by a computer.
The computer programme would then display 3-D graphics simulating how that person's cancer was likely to spread. It would also give a numerical print out of factors, which could help determine how doctors treat the cancer, such as how much oxygen is being supplied to the tumour.
So far Prof Chaplain and his colleagues at Dundee University and Heriot-Watt University have been developing mathematical models based on published data about patients' tumours and early results are promising. But he and his colleagues, who are among only a handful working on this line of research in the UK, now plan to develop their technique more fully by testing it out with the help of scientists in the lab. They believe that a fully workable system could be available within five to ten years' time.
Prof Chaplain adds: "We believe this system will be an important tool for doctors in the future and, once it's been refined, we would like every hospital to have access to it. What we need to do is convince clinicians of its real potential to help patients."
The Director General of The Cancer Research Campaign, Prof Gordon McVie, says: "This is an exciting avenue of research and one that I believe may become part of mainstream cancer treatment in the future. Mathematical models are, of course, only an approximation to reality, but so are our weather forecasts and look how useful they are to us all! It is also important to stress that these models would be used as well as - not instead of - traditional medical expertise."
For media inquiries contact:
The Cancer Research Campaign press office on 0207 487 3768 or (m) 0836 229208 or (m) 0788 767 8407.