1 April 2011
Scientists call for more robust measures to identify and protect endangered species
Conservationists may need to change their approach to protecting animals and plants from extinction if they are to successfully shield key species and habitats from the effects of global climate change, according to a new review in the journal Science.
Scientists and conservation organisations currently work out a species' extinction risk by determining how likely it is that climate change will make its habitat unsuitable. They then focus their efforts on protecting species whose location is threatened by changing temperature and rainfall.
However, these are not always the animal or plant species that need the most protection, say the authors of the new study, from Imperial College London, the Universities of Dundee and Bristol in the UK, Wyoming in the USA and Macquarie in Australia. This is because some species are more sensitive to changes in climate than others; some are able to adapt to change and some find it easy to relocate to new suitable areas.
The researchers are proposing that scientists use a comprehensive 'vulnerability assessment', using a wider selection of data, to provide a more accurate picture of which species and habitats in which places are likely to be most at risk.
For example, in the UK countryside some species are more adaptable than others. As habitats occupied by species like foxes and otters in the UK have been consistently shrinking over the last centuries because of expanding land developments, species such as otters have exhibited the expected decline in population numbers, while others such as foxes have been able to relocate to urban areas and adjust to a new way of life. Climate change is likely to have a similar effect. Some species will be more adaptable than others, but to date this information has not been incorporated into planning.
In order to address this, the new vulnerability assessment would draw upon a wide array of information sources, including field observations and monitoring; ecological experiments; records of ecological consequences of past climate change; and computational models incorporating ecological and evolutionary processes.
Some conservation organisations are already beginning to collect and monitor data that would help them implement the recommendations made in this study. However, the authors say they would make more progress if they aligned their efforts to a coordinated framework, such as the vulnerability assessment. They say that the combination of a change in practice and research using the newly collected and collated data will only improve the chances we have to save key plant and animal species for the future.
Professor Terry Dawson, SAGES Chair in Global Environmental Change at the University of Dundee and a lead author of the review, said, "Our existing models are not wrong. We have been working with them for many years, and they are undoubtedly useful as far as they go, but they have their limitations. They are not an exact picture of how things will develop in future. We need to take into account many factors that are not included in the models if we are to deal with the serious problems posed by climate change.
"Climate change will have a major impact on life on earth, but there is growing evidence that many species are adapting to it and the reality is that there are a lot of complex factors at play that need to be examined. Some species are doing quite well without intervention, hence it may be that some interventions are unnecessary and ineffective."
Professor Georgina Mace FRS, CBE, from the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London and another of the lead authors of the review, said, "It is undoubtedly true that man-made climate change will cause extinctions and disrupt natural ecologies and it may also happen too fast for evolutionary change to keep up. However, we are limited in our current understanding of how plant and animal populations will react to short-term changes in their environment.
"I believe our recommendations for a new vulnerability assessment will mean we are able to target our conservation efforts to protect the most vulnerable species and habitats. You could think of it like the UK Government's practice of handing out heating bill subsidies to elderly and vulnerable people during the winter. This is more effective and efficient than giving subsidies to everybody living in a cold part of the country regardless of their ability to financially support themselves or go on holiday to Spain for the winter."
The new assessment could lead to a reduction in intensity or extent of some conservation programmes and it could also mean taking a laissez faire approach to some more resilient species or habitats, in order to free up resources to manage those that are highly vulnerable. The authors argue that targeting efforts more closely would have the added benefit of being more efficient and effective way of operating.
Evidence from current monitoring schemes has suggested that some endangered species are faring better than conservationists expected. "We don’t really understand what leads some species to appear to cope with the effects of climate change," said co-author Professor Stephen Jackson from the University of Wyoming in the USA. "It may be due to a failure of monitoring schemes or some unexpected effects that allows a species to temporarily adapt to an unsuitable environment. What is certain is that by studying these effects we hope to learn something about how conservation managers can use them to an advantage."
"Now is the time for conservation biology to move beyond predictions to analysis, diagnosis, and design and implementation of
effective measures to protect biodiversity," said co-author Professor Colin Prentice, formerly of the QUEST (Quantifying and
Understanding the Earth System) programme created by Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) at the University of Bristol,
and now at Macquarie University in Australia.
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1. Journal reference
Dawson TP, Jackson ST, House JI, Prentice IC and Mace GM, "Beyond Predictions: Biodiversity
Conservation in a Changing Climate" is published in Science on 1 April 2011 and under STRICT EMBARGO until 2000 London time (GMT)
/ 1400 US Eastern time Thursday 31 March 2011. For copy of the paper, please contact the AAAS Office of Public Programs
+1-202-326-6440 or scipak@aaas.org or www.eurekalert.org.
2. About Imperial College London
Consistently rated amongst the world's best universities, Imperial College London is a science-based institution with a reputation for excellence in teaching and research that attracts 14,000 students and 6,000 staff of the highest international quality. Innovative research at the College explores the interface between science, medicine, engineering and business, delivering practical solutions that improve quality of life and the environment - underpinned by a dynamic enterprise culture.
Since its foundation in 1907, Imperial's contributions to society have included the discovery of penicillin, the development of holography and the foundations of fibre optics . This commitment to the application of research for the benefit of a all continues today, with current focuses including interdisciplinary collaborations to improve global health, tackle climate change, develop sustainable sources of energy and address security challenges.
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3. About the University of Dundee
The University of Dundee has an international reputation for excellence across a range of disciplines including science, medicine, engineering and art.
The calibre of research at Dundee is high, with 95% of staff working in areas of national or international excellence. The University ranks in the UK’s top three for research income per capita and in the top 20 for research income.
The integrated, cross-disciplinary School of the Environment comprises Architecture, Geography, Environmental Science and Town & Regional Planning.
A determination to find solutions to the social and environmental challenges facing the world underpin the distinctive degree programmes and research mission.
More information is available by visiting www.dundee.ac.uk/socialsciences/.
4. About the University of Bristol
The University of Bristol is globally distinguished and one of the very best universities in the UK. It is a thriving international community dedicated to learning, discovery and enterprise, a world leader in research and a member of the Worldwide Universities Network and of the Russell Group of UK universities.
Website: www.bristol.ac.uk.
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