Feeding the Chinese Dragon

China makes the headlines for many reasons, justified and unjustified: political, social, economic, environmental and, in this year of the Olympics, even sporting. Among these sources of fame, one sticks out as particularly intractable and of great importance both to China and the rest of the world, that is energy.

At home, recurrent energy shortages constrain people's lives and national economic development, and the wasteful use of energy causes intense and widespread pollution. Overseas, China is seen a one of the many drivers behind the high level of prices for energy and other raw materials, its energy companies are acquiring assets around the world with government support, and the country is now the second largest producer of greenhouse gases, after the USA. Whereas in the 1980s and 1990s the energy companies of the world were seeking to get into China, now China's energy sector is coming out at the world.

China's GDP has been increasing at an average annual rate of about 9% for nearly thirty years. That means the size of the economy is thirteen times what it was in 1978.


Fortunately the country's total energy consumption has only risen fivefold, because during the 1980s and 1990s the government was very successful at reducing the energy intensity, that is the amount of energy used per unit of GDP.

Those were the days of the planned economy, especially in the 1980s, and the government was able to use the instruments of command-and-control to force industries to use energy more efficiently.

This trend of steady improvement was reversed in 2002 when the government, in its efforts to kick-start a sluggish economy still suffering the after-effects of the Asian crisis, promoted investment in heavy industry and infrastructure. This led to a boom in the production of energy-intensive materials such as steel, cement and plate glass. Demand for energy soared and energy intensity started to rise after two decades of steady decline.

Domestic supply was unable to keep pace with demand. Imports of oil rose sharply, exports of coal declined, and natural gas was imported for the first time, all of which contributed to the rise of international energy prices. No country is the world can cope with an energy demand which increases by 50% in just three years, let alone a country the size of China with 1.4 billion people and the second largest consumption of energy in the world.

Despite investing tens of billions of dollars since 2003 in the production and transmission of energy, supply shortages continue. This situation is exacerbated by the lack of a coherent energy policy and the absence of a Ministry of Energy to coordinate the development of the energy sector.

In 2004, the government launched an aggressive programme to reverse the rise of energy intensity, focusing mainly on heavy industry, a relatively easy target. More difficult will be the challenge of changing appliances and practices in small and medium sized enterprises, in the construction industry, in the transport sector and in households. Obstacles include ineffective systems of regulation, low energy prices and a growing love of road vehicles.

As well as the need to curb energy demand in order to ensure sufficient supply, an additional driver relates to the environment. China's energy production is dominated by coal. Indeed it is the world's largest user of coal, accounting for nearly 40% of global consumption.

Coal is a dirty and inefficient fuel, unless the most modern and expensive technologies are used. The burning of coal releases dust particles which pollute the air around the power station, sulphur dioxide which causes acid rain over a wide area and carbon dioxide which adds to global warming. The four years from 2004 to 2007 saw the construction of more than 300 GW of new power station capacity, that is four times the total capacity of the United Kingdom; and 90% of these new power stations are fuelled by coal. So it is hardly surprising that China has some of the most polluted cities in the world, that much of its agricultural land is affected by acid rain and that the country will soon be the largest emitter of greenhouse gases.

But before we criticise China too readily, we must remember that this single country is home to 20% of the world's population. In absolute terms its energy consumption is the second largest in the world after the USA, but the consumption per person is just 30% of that in the UK.

Likewise the level of greenhouse gas emissions per person is a fraction of that in the West.

Of greater relevance is the recent estimation that some 30% of China's emissions are caused by industries which are exporting products to the rest of the world, mainly to the West.


In other words, the West has reduced, or at least constrained its own rise of emissions by exporting its emitting industries to China.

For China's government the immediate priority is to 'keep the lights on' at home and not to save the world from an environmental problem which has mainly been created and sustained by the developed countries. However, its determination to drive down energy intensity and to transform the nation's energy sector will also help reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

As well as improving energy efficiency, the country has very ambitious programmes for wind power and for other forms of renewable energy. It also has the world's largest construction plans for hydro-electric dams and nuclear power, but of course these have their own well known drawbacks.

Sustained and effective solutions to China's energy challenges require coherent policy making and effective implementation. At the heart of the matter lie two things: technology and behaviour. The best available technologies must be installed as soon as possible.

This particularly applies to industrial plant which may have a useful life of 30 years or more. Thus the Chinese government and West together need a sense of urgency to make the funds, the technology and the skills available as rapidly as possible to ensure that China can make a rapid transition to a modern energy system. It is in the interests of western governments and western peoples to achieve this.

But technology without attitude is not enough. At home, China's government will need to continue their efforts to change the way its people think about energy, natural resources and the environment.

Philip Andrews-Speed is Professor of Energy Policy and Director of the Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy at the University of Dundee