More floods for Scotland

Climate change in Scotland will lead to a dramatic increase in flooding over the coming century, according to a major Scottish Executive-commissioned study conducted by the department of geography.

Andrew Black, Alan Werritty and Rob Duck carried out research for the "Climate Change: Flooding Occurrences Review", examining the history of flooding in Scotland and predicting likely changes given what is presently known about climate change. The report identifies those areas of Scotland most vulnerable to flooding, such as the Clyde river basin area, where the frequency of flooding is expected to double over the next 80 years.

The study, published last month, also estimates current and future financial damage in areas which will be affected. It is expected that flooding inland and round Scotland's coast costs Scotland an annual $20 - a figure which is expected to increase to $43 million by 2080.

In addition to predicting changes in flooding, the geography department team examined public awareness of flooding and identified a need for the public to play a greater role in curbing the far-reaching impact of floods. Community groups and organisations such as the Scottish Environment Protection Agency must raise awareness if the economic and social impact of increased flooding is to be minimised, say the researchers.

Dr Andrew Black said, "Current predictions of climate change suggest that over the present century Scotland will become warmer and wetter, sea level will rise and the number of storms around the coast will increase. As a result, the threat of flooding both inland and around the coast will increase, damaging Scotland's economy and society.

"Transport links, housing, the public water supply and commercial owners are especially vulnerable to such an increase in flooding. Although land owners are primarily responsible for flood protection, local and central government also have a role in reducing the adverse impact of floods."

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